How many rank-and-file members does Labor currently have?

The number of rank-and-file members that our Australian political parties have is often a secret. Drawing on NSW Electoral Commission data, the Grattan Institute recently extrapolated a national ALP rank-and-file membership of 48,505.

Based on publicly available information, that appears to be an underestimation by over 10%. It is not surprise given the Greens membership was also undercounted by Grattan and knowing that multi-year memberships do not appear properly in the NSW Electoral Commission data that the extrapolation is based on.

So how many members does Labor have? Well let’s look at the available state and territory level figures.

We know that in mid-2019 Jodi McKay won the NSW Labor leadership in a ballot where 10,822 rank-and-file members voted. The ballot had a turnout of 61.5%, roughly meaning there were at least 17,596 members in NSW.

A range of other state membership figures have been cited in recent media articles:

• In Victoria, there are claims party membership is down by 4,500 from around 16,000 meaning it has about 11,500 members;

• ACT Labor’s membership was 2,300 in July 2019;

• Over 1,200 participated in the recent 2021 Tasmanian Labor leadership ballot; and

• A figure of 7,000 members was cited for Western Australia at the end of 2018.

Assuming membership levels are unchanged for Queensland, the Northern Territory and South Australia, if you combine the previously mentioned figures, the national total for ALP membership is at least 53,100.

It is likely to be higher for a few reasons such as that new members would not be eligible for leadership votes plus there is often a bump in party membership after election defeats such as in 2019.

In lieu of mandated public reporting, the next ballot for ALP National President is likely to be next time that the national membership figures (and possibly state breakdowns) get revealed to a public audience.

Advertisement

How the impact of branchstacking in Victorian Labor differs to NSW Labor

With the fallout in Victorian Labor, attention has fallen on the practice of branchstacking. Branchstacking within political parties is not anything new and happens in all parties. The combination of low membership numbers and the closed, privately regulated nature of party preselections in Australia means it occurs but is usually only acted upon when the results go against the ruling grouping unless there is significant public scrutiny.

While other Labor state branches do have a history of branch stacking, the Victorian Labor rules provide particular incentives that do not exist, for example, within the New South Wales Labor rules.

In Victorian Labor, state and federal preselections (other than for the Senate) occur via a combination of a 50% local component from rank-and-file members and 50% votes from the Public Office Selection Committee (POSC). The 100 member POSC is elected by the State Conference which has 600 delegates.

Furthermore, the 300 rank-and-file delegates to State Conference are allocated to each federal electorate on the basis of the number of members in that electorate. The Federal Electorate Assembly (FEA) delegate results from 2019 give an indication of the divergent number of delegates each federal electorate gets, which reflects the likely location of stacking.

FEA	Total	Socialist Left	Right	Industrial Left	Independents
Aston	3	0	3
Ballarat	7	5			2
Bendigo	6	3	1		2
Bruce	17	8	9
Calwell	16	6	10
Casey	3	1	2
Chisholm	6	1	4		1
Cooper	20	5	12	2	1
Corangamite	5	3	1	1
Corio	5	2	3
Deakin	3	1	2
Dunkley	5	4	1
Flinders	3	1	1		1
Fraser	20	1	19
Gellibrand	8	3	3	1	1
Gippsland	2		1		1
Goldstein	5	1	3		1
Gorton	12	5	7
Higgins	6	1	4		1
Holt	6	3	3
Hotham	11	2	8		1
Indi	2	0	2
Isaacs	6	3	3
Jagajaga	13	4	9
Kooyong	4	2	1		1
La Trobe	4	3	1
Lalor	6	3	3
Mallee	2	2
Maribyrnong	12	2	10
McEwen	5	2	3
Monash	3	1	1		1
Melbourne	14	8	3	1	2
Macnamara	12	4	6		2
Menzies	4	3	1
Nichols	2	0	2
Scullin	19	10	9
Wannon	3	1	2
Wills	20	4	15	1
Total	300	108	168	6	18

The party rules means that stacking in one geographic area has statewide implications for preselections because more State Conference delegates means more spots on the POSC, which can override the local component in preselections even if localised stacking does not result in a majority of the local vote. It results in horsetrading between groupings as a combination of enough of a local vote plus a bloc on the POSC can override the local component.

How does this differ to other states? Well NSW Labor is far from immune from branchstacking with historical examples in the inner city throughout the 1980s, Wollongong, Cabramatta, Liverpool and the Inner West in the 1990s and around Bondi in the mid-2000s. But where stacking occurred, its impact is more localised because of how preselections occur and the fixed number of indirectly-elected delegates from each state and federal electorate to NSW State Conference, regardless of the number of rank-and-file members who reside in an electorate. There is also no equivalent to the POSC, NSW Conference selecting the Upper House and Senate ticket.

The NSW Labor rules also include anti-stacking “tripwire” if five or more members apply to join a branch at one ordinary meeting or more than fifty members apply to join a branch at one formation meeting that freezes this. Some may argue this is more about maintaining existing control top stop challengers but it also makes the scenes in Tarnait less likely.

Though NSW Lower House preselections are notionally 100% rank-and-file votes, there was a previous N40 rule that could be invoked, which allowed a combination of 50% Administrative Committee and 50% delegates to the State or Federal Electorate Council (excluding the additional affirmative action weighting given to female candidates). The N40 rule (now N41) has not been used in recent times due to its extensive abuse by the Terrigal sub-faction of the NSW Right to impose its candidates in Lower House seats.

What it means is NSW Labor has a massively malapportioned delegate system that does not reflect the geographic distribution of membership to the benefit of the NSW Right who hold a majority at State Conference as a result. It also means there is less incentive for factional fragmentation to horsetrade like in Victoria and branchstacking does not have a strong statewide impact on preselections.

It is important to understand how party structures drive particular incentives if we are serious about party reform to tackle branchstacking in parties and to have true mass membership parties, otherwise changes will be ineffective and only ever be superficial.

How have ALP rank-and-file membership numbers changed over time?

I often hear claims about how the British Labour Party is now the largest party in Western Europe with the number of new members cited. The numbers are impressive but also make me wonder how many members of Australian Labor Party are there and how it compares to the past. It is hard to know because membership numbers are a closely guarded secret.

Currently, the only state with available figures is New South Wales. It is only because New South Wales Electoral Commission provides details as part of the electoral disclosure regime. Registered political parties are required to disclose funds raised from membership fees and subscriptions. However, beyond New South Wales, there is no requirement for party membership numbers to be published.

The most recent official source for Australian Labor Party rank-and-file membership numbers is the 2010 National Review.

It provided an overall indication of party membership across Australia between 2002 and 2010 but it did not delve into historical membership figures in the 20th century. Without that data, we do not know how large a decline there has been since the heyday of party membership.

The best available estimate of ALP rank-and-file membership numbers from the 20th century is from Andrew Scott’s 1991 book Fading Loyalties. Based on what fragments of data he could gather, Scott concludes that ALP membership peaked in the decade following the Second World War at around 75,000 and fell to less than 45,000 following the Split and never recovered (though there was some growth until Whitlam). While there was some growth in South Australia and Western Australia afterwards but it could not compensate for declines in New South Wales and Victoria.

The problem with national figures, however, is they hide changes in state branches which can be significant over time.

The book Machine Politics in the Australian Labor Party provides rank-and-file membership numbers for each state and territory branch in 1980. While an approximation, it shows that even though the Australian population has grown by 67%, overall ALP membership numbers are stagnant.

The most recent publicly available figures, broken down by state branch, are from 2015 (though there is a national figure of 53,550 at the end of 2017). These were leaked to The Australian around the time of the National President ballot.

	1980	2015	Change	Change %
NSW	20,000	18,304	–       1,696	-8%
VIC	13,000	14,969	1,969	15%
QLD	5,500	9,328	3,828	70%
SA	8,050	3,836	–       4,164	-52%
WA	4,000	4,511	511	13%
TAS	1,730	1,144	–           586	-34%
ACT	800	1,500	700	88%
NT	400	338	–             62	-16%
Total	53,480	53,930	450	1%

From this comparative table, we can see that while national ALP membership has been fairly flat in raw numbers over the past three decades, there have been shifts in membership numbers within each state and territory branch.

It is clear from all these party membership figures that the ALP has never been a mass political party though some state and territory branches such as Queensland and the ACT are doing much better than others like SA and Tasmania. Why is something worth further investigation.

2018 ALP National Conference delegate election results

One of the big reforms at the last ALP National Conference was the direct election of delegates to National Conference equal to the number of federal electorates. Each branch was allowed to choose the method of election with NSW being the sole branch to elect each delegate by federal electorate instead of via proportional representation through an at-large state or multi-electorate regional ballots like elsewhere.

Almost all state branches have now held their rank-and-file National Conference delegate elections. The results of these elections are listed below:

New South Wales

In New South Wales, there were contested ballots in 26 out of 47 federal electorates. The electorates with ballots and factional alignment of the winners were:

Banks: Left
Bennelong: Left
Berowra: Left
Blaxland: Left
Bradfield: Left
Calare: Right
Cowper: Right
Eden-Monaro: Right
Farrer: Right
Greenway: Right
Hughes: Right
Hume: Right
Hunter: Right
Lindsay: Right
Lyne: unaligned
Mitchell: Left
New England: Right
North Sydney: Right
Page: Left
Parramatta: Right
Reid: Right
Richmond: Right
Riverina: unaligned
Robertson: Right
Sydney: Left
Warringah: Left
Wentworth: Left

Overall, the rank-and-file delegate split was 28 to the National Right, 17 to the National Left and 2 unaligned. My understanding is the number of Left delegates went down by two in NSW compared to the last ALP National Conference. At the time, NSW required a delegate to be elected per federal electorate but there was no requirement for direct election by members.

Victoria

The Victorian ALP had a turnout of 73% for their rank-and-file National Conference delegate elections with 9,609 members returning their ballots. The results were:

National Left	Unaligned	National Right
Socialist Left 13	IND 2	Mods 10
Industrial Left 1		AWU 7
		Con 5
		NUW 2
		SDA 2
		HWU 1

The Victorian union component of National Conference delegates is still to be elected but the total Victorian Left delegation to National Conference is expected to be the same or one less than last time.

Concerns have, however, been raised about the conduct of the ballots as the Victorian ALP Returning Officer made a ruling that members could email for a replacement ballot and allow someone else collect their ballot. Overall, 1,085 ballots were re-issued with a high level concentrated in a small number of branches and electorates. Some branches had over 40% ask for a re-issue. It is been suggested that about 1,000 votes were picked up by the Mods (Adem Somyurek) for National Conference delegates that way. It might be what leads to a National Right majority.

Queensland

Queensland is holding their delegate elections for both State and National Conference with the Left faction running under the ticket named ‘Local Left Team’. Voting will close on 8 June.

Western Australia

In Western Australia, the split amongst the elected rank-and-file National Conference delegates was 12 Left, 5 CFMMEU and 5 Right. The delegates are:

• Christy Cain (CFMMEU)
• Magenta Wilders (Right)
• Pierre Yang (Left)
• Carolyn Smith (Left)
• Matthew Swinbourn (CFMMEU)
• Josh Wilson (Left)
• Adrian Evans (CFMMEU)
• Guy Wroth (Left)
• Deana Lawver (CFMMEU)
• Michelle Roberts MLA (Right)
• Anne Aly (Left)
• George Gakis (CFMMEU)
• Matt Keogh (Right)
• Sally Talbot (Left)
• Jess Short (Left)
• Tim Hammond (Right)
• Patrick Dodson (Right)
• Dom Rose (Left)
• Louise Pratt (Left)
• Stephen Dawson (Left)
• Helen Tuck (Left)
• Jessica Shaw (Left)

South Australia

In South Australia, the twelve directly elected National Conference delegates were evenly split between the Left and Right:

South Zone

• Amanda Rishworth (Right)
• Kyam Maher (Left)

Central Zone

• Aemon Bourke (Right)
• Demi Pnevmatikos (Left)

North West Zone

• Stephen Mullighan (Right)
• Karen Grogan (Left)

Regional Zone

• Eddie Hughes (Left)
• Clare Scriven (Right)

North Zone

• Zoe Bettison (Right)
• Steven May (Left)

North East Zone

• Dana Wortley (Right)
• Margot McInnes (Left)

Tasmania

All Tasmanian delegates to ALP National Conference have been elected. The Left will have 19 delegates (including the party leader) while the Right has 4 delegates. This is unchanged from the last National Conference.

Australian Capital Territory

In the Australian Capital Territory, Yvette Berry (Left) and Andrew Leigh (unaligned) were chosen as the directly elected National Conference delegates. The remaining four delegates elected by ACT Labor Conference were split between the CPSU (Left), CFMMEU, SDA (Right) and Gai Brodtmann (Right). The Chief Minister, Andrew Barr (Right), is also a delegate as party leader. The factional split is unchanged from the last National Conference.

Northern Territory

The elected National Conference delegation of six was evenly split between the Left and Right. The Chief Minister, Michael Gunner, sits with the Right faction.

Upcoming State Conferences

There will be three state ALP Conferences in the lead-up to ALP National Conference that will elect some remaining delegates to National Conference (Victoria on 26 May, NSW on 30 June-1 July, Tasmania on 7-8 July). Western Australia, Queensland, the Australian Capital Territory and South Australia will hold their state conferences after ALP National Conference.

If you have any corrections to this post or further information, please send it through.

UPDATE 25/05/18: Reported numbers are that the National Right hold roughly 200 delegates (dependent on whether you include the Queensland “Old Guard”).

UPDATE 13/06/18: Guardian Australia reports that the breakdown is 193 Left, 195 Right, 5 Queensland “Old Guard” and 7 independents.

UPDATE 14/11/18: The Australian reports that the National Right believes it will have at least 201 delegates with the National Left (excluding the Industrial Left) on 171.

Where to after the Northcote by-election

The Greens’ victory in Saturday’s Northcote by-election in Melbourne is likely to send shockwaves throughout inner city Labor in Victoria. While some did not expect it after polling showed Labor winning, robopolling has previously failed to accurately predict other contests involving Greens, most notably during the 2015 NSW state election.

Despite a good candidate and substantial resources, Labor lost the seat in a double digit swing. The contest in South Brisbane this Saturday is likely to have some bearing on the discussion as to whether it is just a Melbourne specific phenomenon but either way it seems Victorian Labor may be headed towards a minority government.

Many are yet to fully process the implications of the result but it is likely to shape debate about Labor and the Greens for the next twelve months. There needs to be some deep and reflective thinking by both Victorian Labor and the Greens. Neither are prepared for a minority government situation and their relationship seems poisonous from afar. Majority governments reduced to a minority are almost never re-elected and it has the potential to be worse than the Tasmanian experience.

The danger is the Coalition may get more seats than Labor and neither Labor nor the Greens may be able to work out their differences. If there is a minority Victorian Coalition government after 2018, its path to majority will be by pointing to chaos and instability with Labor and the Greens as the alternative. Another scenario is a loose arrangement between Labor and the Greens where the Greens make a big fuss to differentiate, creating a division and chaos narrative for 2022, leading to a majority Coalition win. Either situation would be bad for progressive politics in Victoria.

The spectre of a minority government will also put a brake on the Andrews Government’s style of wearing its progressive agenda on its sleeve and curtail its ambition on a range of issues. Already the media is being briefed about abandoning the inner city for outer suburbia and the regions with a ‘bread and butter’ agenda, shaped by a view that Greens voters are not a detached part of Labor’s existing base but rather wealthy professionals with more in common demographically with Liberal voters.

The reality is both parties need to figure out how to relate to each other in a manner that does not feed a Coalition narrative of chaos and instability or else the Coalition may slip ahead and win. Both parties also must learn the lesson of the past decade of federal politics, that is the Coalition needs to be comprehensively beaten twice or they will not drop the agenda pushed by the hard right. Whether they will is yet to be seen.

How 2018 ALP National Conference delegates will be elected

Next year the Australian Labor Party will hold its triennial National Conference in Adelaide from Thursday July 26 until Saturday July 28. It will be the first ALP National Conference in Adelaide since 1979.

There will be 400 delegates to ALP National Conference, comprising of:

(i) three delegates being the National President and National Vice-Presidents
elected under clause 18(a);
(ii) four delegates being the Leader and Deputy Leader of the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party (FPLP) and the
Leader and Deputy Leader of the Party in the Senate;
(iii) six delegates elected from and by the FPLP;
(iv) delegations from each state consisting of:
(A) the state Parliamentary Leader,
(B) a base component of 12 persons, and
(C) a supplementary component of a number of persons equal to twice the
number of House of Representatives electorates in that state as at the
previous 31 December;
(v) delegations from each territory consisting of:
(A) the territory Parliamentary Leader,
(B) a base component of 2 persons, and
(C) a supplementary component of a number of persons equal to twice the
number of House of Representatives electorates in that territory as at
the previous 31 December; and
(vi) three delegates from Australian Young Labor

It will be be first ALP National Conference since party rules were amended to mandate the direct election of state and territory delegations to ALP National Conference. Clause 32(b) in the party constitution now states that:

(i) a number of delegates directly elected by the financial members of the state branch that is at least equal to the number of House of Representative electorates in that state as at the previous 31 December; and

(ii) delegates from outside metropolitan areas.

Below is how ALP National Conference delegates will be elected in each state and territory branch, based on available information:

NSW

• Each Federal Electorate Council will elect one delegate.
• Party Officers (President, Senior Vice-President, Junior Vice-Presidents, General Secretary and Assistant General Secretaries) will be automatically elected.
• The balance of the National Conference delegation will be elected by Affiliated Union delegates to NSW State Conference.

VIC

• Half of National Conferences delegates and proxy delegates shall be elected by and from a single postal ballot of all party members, including Central Branch members, who have been members of the Party for at least 12 months at the close of nominations for this election.
  • At least two of the National Conference delegates elected must reside in a non-metropolitan area.
• Half of the National Conference delegates and proxy delegates shall be elected by a ballot of the Affiliated Union delegates at the meeting of State Conference immediately preceding the National Conference.

QLD

• Half of National Conference delegates will be elected by Affiliated Union delegates at QLD State Conference.
• Half of National Conference delegates will be elected by branch members elected in separate proportional representation ballots consisting of:
  • a Brisbane North zone, consisting of the federal electorates of Brisbane, Lilley, Petrie and Ryan.
  • a Brisbane South zone, consisting of the federal electorates of Bonner, Bowman, Griffith, Moreton, Oxley and Rankin.
  • a South-East Queensland Zone, consisting of the federal electorates of Blair, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Forde, Longman, McPherson, Moncrieff, Wide Bay, Wright.
  • a Regional Queensland Zone, consisting of the federal electorates of Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn, Groom, Herbert, Hinkler, Kennedy, Leichhardt, Maranoa.
• The number of delegates in each zone shall be determined by dividing the number of eligible branch members in Queensland at the time of opening nominations, by the number of delegates to be elected in total.

WA

• National Conference delegates are currently elected by the State Executive, however, there may be an attempt to change this at the upcoming WA Conference in August.

SA

• The State Executive of the ALP (SA) will create National Conference Election Zones (NCEZ).
• The number of NCEZ will be equal to half the minimum number of rank and file delegates required to be elected from the rank and file allocated to South Australia by the National Rules.  If this calculation produces a fraction, the number will be rounded up.
• For the election of rank and file delegates to the 2018 National Conference, the number of NCEZ will be 11, being the minimum number of rank and file delegates required by the National Rules divided by 2, which when rounded equates to 6 NCEZ.
• When determining the NCEZ, the State Executive must ensure each NCEZ has, as near as practicable, equal numbers of ALP SA members, and  use existing boundaries, where possible, in this order of preference:

1. State Electorate Boundaries
2. Federal Electorate Boundaries
3. Council boundaries.
4. Other boundaries as determined by State Executive

• Each NCEZ will have two (2) delegate positions elected by a proportional representation ballot with the voting method to be determined by State Executive.

   

TAS

• Half of National Conference delegates shall be directly elected by rank and file members (with eligibility requirements).
• Half of National Conference delegates shall be elected by and from State Conference in a single ballot.

ACT

• Two delegates will be directly elected by rank and file members.
• Four delegates will be elected by ACT Branch Conference delegates.

NT

• Currently all six elected National Conference delegates are elected by NT Conference, however, there may be an attempt to change this to one delegate from each federal electorate with the remainder elected by Conference.

From this quick analysis, it is clear that each state and territory branch has been allowed to interpret the party rules differently. Some have allocated delegates to electorates or geographic areas while other states will have statewide ballots. It also means that while some states adhere to the 50:50 principle, others such as the ACT and Tasmania will not.

Furthermore, the extent of proportionality will vary significantly. New South Wales will have the least proportionate delegation, again reflecting the malapportionment that exists at a state level (to the advantage of the dominant Centre Unity faction). It is something that needs to be addressed to ensure something closer to One Vote One Value in the largest state branch.

It is also likely that the total number of National Conference delegates will need to be amended (or removed) for the following Conference as the House of Representatives will grow to 151, reducing the South Australian delegation by 2 and increasing the ACT and Victorian delegations by 2 per delegation for a total of 402 delegates to the following Conference if the current formula remains.

UPDATE 01/08/2017: It has been pointed out to me that the direct election clause seems to contradict Clause 15(e) in the party rules as no one is holding a single ballot for all delegates. Clause 15(e) states:

All delegates must be elected by a system of proportional representation in a single ballot with affirmative action in accordance with clause 19.

UPDATE 04/08/2017: I have been informed that Tasmania and the ACT comply with both clauses as their delegations are elected in single (college-type) ballots as opposed to electing each rank and file delegate in separate individual ballots like NSW.

Further, I have been told allowing half of National Conference delegates to be elected by union delegates to state Conferences is not based on anything in the party constitution but reliant on a Conference resolution from the previous 2011 National Conference. It is now included in Clause 22 in Chapter 12: Organisational Policies. The relevant section reads:

(g) Support state branches considering direct election.

To make our Party more active, we need to increase participation amongst rank and file members. One proposal for strengthening rank and file involvement is to provide the option of directly electing National Conference delegates in a ballot of financial members in an electorate. Different models for electing delegates to Party conferences are used in different states and territories. Each of these models reflects the unique political environment in that state. National Conference therefore:

(i) recognises that each state branch will approach the election of National Conference delegates differently;

(ii) supports state branches that are considering direct election;

(iii) recognises that the National Principles of Organisation require that state branch conferences comprise 50 per cent trade union representation, and 50 per cent Party constituency representatives;

(iv) reaffirms that this principle of 50/50 representation must continue;

(v) affirms that the local determination of National Conference delegates should not come at the expense of trade union representation; and

(vi) affirms that some of the National Conference delegation should continue to be elected in such a way as to ensure the principle of 50/50 representation is maintained.

Understanding Labor beyond Sydney and Melbourne

A few years ago, the NSW Socialist Left celebrated its 60th anniversary and got historian Frank Bongiorno contributing a short history of the faction. I re-read the short history a few days ago and it got me thinking about the origins of the Left faction in other states.

While there is often much talk about rumblings within the Left faction, as I have previously written, the reality is that it is a loose coalition of state-based groupings. They are shaped by local factors and histories which mean they often disagree (as shown at the recent ALP National Conference) and even have their own sub-groupings. The state-based nature of the ALP also meant that the various factions did not all form at the same time and are very much creations of certain circumstances and local party cultures, something that is not well understood or analysed.

The NSW Combined Unions and Branches Steering Committee (as the Socialist Left was originally known as) was formed in 1954-55 to fight the Groupers, however, the Victorian Socialist Left was only formed after federal intervention in 1970. Elsewhere around the country, formalised Left factions were formed at later dates. For example, in Queensland, a formalised Socialist Left only established itself in 1978-79 around then Senator George Georges. In Tasmania, party reform in 1976 resulted in dominance by the ‘Broad Left’ from the mid-1970s onwards which became a formal faction in 1983. The ACT Left Caucus was not formed until the early 1980s. In each of these cases, a Left faction was instigated by local circumstances and those local factors meant that they were often ideologically and operationally quite different.

The experience of South Australia and Western Australia is different, in part because factionalism was imported from the other states. Until the 1980s, much of the rest of the party outside the East Coast was not factionalised. Two factors changed this. Firstly, in 1981, ALP National Conference approved the introduction of proportional representation for the remaining state branches. As Clem Lloyd and Wayne Swan pointed out in their 1987 Australian Journal of Political Science article ‘National Factions and the ALP‘:

Because the state machines could no longer control the composition of National Conference and National Executive delegations, a premium was placed on factional representation which transcended state limits.

Prior to then, the Labor Right did not organise beyond the state level and the Left only had a rudimentary national structure at best. Whoever already controlled the branch had complete control and there was limited incentive because it required complete control.

Secondly, it was the formation of proper national factions, instigated ironically by the creation of the National Centre Left in Adelaide on 19 February 1984, that led to factionalisation in states like Western Australia and South Australia. The Centre Left established itself in opposition to the factionalism of Left and Right factions. Lloyd and Swan explained that:

Lacking any prospect for winning power bases in NSW and Victoria, where existing factions honeycombed the ALP structure, the National Centre Left focussed its aspirations on the outer states which were largely unfactionalised.

Reflecting on all this, it becomes clear that whenever Labor’s past is discussed, it only really focuses on either Sydney or Melbourne or the going ons in the Commonwealth Parliament. It overlooks the importance of local factors in shaping distinct party cultures that do have an impact on national decisions. Labor still is a federation of state branches with alliances across state lines. The Labor Party is more than what happens in Sydney, Melbourne and the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party. There should be more knowledge and discussion about these local histories such as the origins of local factions and political clashes to understand how and why things are the way they are.

How has ALP factional influence changed since the 1980s?

In previous posts I have outlined the factional composition of the ALP at a state and national conference level. Those posts have focused on the previous decade. It is, however, worth understanding that the level of factional influence has changed significantly since the days of the early Hawke Government.

While there is a long history of factionalism in NSW, it was not until a series of interventions into state branches between 1970 and 1980 and the imposition of proportional representation that formalised factions truly started to emerge right across the country. In fact branches such as Western Australia and South Australia were largely unfactionalised until the 1980s.

Though the ALP Left had a rudimentary national organisation since the 1950s, there were no self-declared national factions until the 1984 ALP Conference when the National Centre-Left formed. The Labor Right had never organised beyond the state level and did not even have a formalised integrated national strategy by the end of 1986.

The following tables and charts illustrate my point. The first three tables are from a 1987 journal article National Factions and the ALP by Clem Lloyd and Wayne Swan. They provide an estimate of factional voting power at a national and state levels in 1986. Chart 1 is a compilation of publicly available figures from the 1984, 1986, 2002, 2004 and 2011 ALP National Conferences.

Table 1 – ALP National Factions (Voting Power expressed as a percentage)

	National Right	National Centre Left	National Socialist Left	National Non-aligned
National Executive before 1986 National Conference	39	28	33	–
National Executive after 1986 National Conference	43	21	36	–
National Conference 1984	30	28	41	–
National Conference 1986	41	19	39	–
National Parliamentary Labor Party (total)	41	24	27	7
Senate	29	29	38	4
House of Representatives	45	24	23	8

Table 2 – State and Territory Factions (Voting power expressed as a percentage

	Centre Unity/Labor Unity	Centre Left	Socialist Left	Centre (Qld)	Non-aligned
Queensland	25 [Old Guard]	6	45	29 [AWU]	5
New South Wales	66	–	34	–	–
Victoria	43	7 [Vic Independents]	50	–	–
Tasmania	22	16	49	–	13
South Australia	15	40	45	–	–
Western Australia	30	30 [Centre Coalition]	36	–	4
Northern Territory	45	24	23	–	15
Australian Capital Territory	40	10	47	–	–

Table 3 – ALP Ministers (Factional voting power expressed as a percentage)

	Centre Unity/Labor Unity	Centre Left/Vic Independents	Socialist Left	Non-aligned
National (Cabinet)	47	41	12	–
National (Ministry)	41	37	15	7
New South Wales	70	–	25	5
Victoria	32	21	32	15
South Australia	–	54	15	31
Western Australia	22	33	11	34

Chart 1 – Breakdown of ALP National Conference delegates by faction (factional voting power expressed as a percentage)

There are a number of conclusions that can be drawn from these tables.

Firstly, since the 1980s there has been a massive shift in factional voting power, particularly since the Centre-Left has ceased to exist. The Left has improved its position in Western Australia, Queensland, New South Wales, Northern Territory and Tasmania. The Left has lost ground while the Right has gained ground in South Australia and Victoria. Though the Left has gained considerably, the Right gained enough to get an outright majority in the mid-2000s at a national level. The base of that majority has been its control of New South Wales.

Secondly, the sidelining of unaligned party members by factions is not a recent phenomenon at all. Arguably the Centre-Left swallowed up much of what was the unaligned vote in becoming a faction, which in turn has been swallowed up by the Left and Right. Swan and Lloyd (1987) noted that:

At the national level, the unaligned component, which was quite important even five years ago, has diminished in influence. Non-aligned delegates have disappeared from the National Conference and the National Executive.

Since the rise of national factions in the early 1980s, the level of influence by various factions has changed dramatically. Factionalisation and polarisation has spread to the rest of the country from the eastern states. The level of influence each faction will continue to change over the coming years.

The move towards greater direct elections is likely to mean less factional stability as greater contestability is introduced and increased levels of proportionality associated with these direct elections could result in the creation of new groupings. This will all depend on what occurs at the ALP National Conference in July where party reform will be debated.

How are state and territory ALP conferences structured?

The question of party reform is likely to dominate the upcoming ALP National Conference in July. While reform is undoubtedly needed, much of the commentary will be based on inaccurate information, in part because knowledge about party structures is not widespread.

It is important to understand that each state branch of the ALP has its own distinct structure. It can vary wildly from state to state. In some states, unions aren’t actually 50% of conference floor and in others committee members and the parliamentary party get many delegate spots. Furthermore, unions are not guaranteed 50% of the delegates at National Conference, “union delegates” are only elected indirectly through state and territory conferences.

This table from an ALP National Secretariat document provides a good overview of how each state and territory branch structures their conference:

State/Terr Conference/Convention	NSW	Vic	Qld	WA	SA	Tas	ACT	NT
Annual frequency	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
Specified timing	Oct	May, Oct	Jun	None	None	Aug	Jun/Jul	Jun
Union delegates	445	300	211	150	100	100	92	33
— as percentage of total	50.0%	49.5%	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%	46.7%	46.5%	43.4%
FEA/FEC delegates	144	300	194	0	0	100	0	0
— allocation of delegates	Fixed: 3/FE	Proportional Ratios: 9,7,5/FE		n/a	n/a	Fixed & Prop.	n/a	n/a
— elected how	FE Councils	Direct	Direct	n/a	n/a	Direct	n/a	n/a
— elected when	Apr, annual Jul/Aug, odd yrs		Every 3 yrs	n/a	n/a	May, annual	n/a	n/a
State/terr electorate delegates	186	0	0	0	92	0	0	0
— allocation of delegates	Fixed: 2/FE	n/a	n/a	n/a	Prop. Max 4/SE	n/a	n/a	n/a
— elected from	SE Councils	n/a	n/a	n/a	Direct	n/a	n/a	n/a
	Apr, annual	n/a	n/a	n/a	Aug, odd yrs	n/a	n/a	n/a
Local branch delegates	0	0	0	148	0	0	92	33
— allocation of delegates	n/a	n/a	n/a	Proportional	n/a	n/a	0.1/member	0.1/member
— elected when	n/a	n/a	n/a	Aug/Sep, annual	n/a	n/a	May, annual	< Sep, annual
Delegates elected postal or in person	Person	Person	Person	Person	Person	Postal	Person	Person
Total geographic member delegates	330	300	194	148	92	100	92	33
— as percentage of total	37.1%	49.5%	46.0%	49.3%	46.0%	46.7%	46.5%	43.4%
FPLP Caucus — elected	16	2	1	1	0	1	3	2
FPLP Caucus — ex officio	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0
SPLP (or TPLP) Caucus — elected	16	0	0	1	0	1	0	0
SPLP (or TPLP) Caucus — ex officio	0	2	2	0	1	2	8	2
Entire caucus are delegates	No	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	Fed only
Municipal delegates	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
— method	n/a	n/a	1 Ex off, 2 elect	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Total parliamentary delegates	32	6	6	2	2	5	11	4
— as percentage of total	3.6%	1.0%	1.4%	0.7%	1.0%	2.3%	5.6%	5.3%
Admin/officials	34	0	5	0	2	1	0	0
— method	All Admin	n/a	Ex officio	n/a	State Sec, Pres	State Sec	n/a	n/a
Policy	27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
— method	Ex officio	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Women’s	3	0	3	0	0	0	0	3
— method	Ex officio	n/a	Direct	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	Elect conf
Young Labor	16	0	3	0	4	2	3	3
— method	Elected YL conf	n/a	Elected YL conf	n/a	Direct2	Direct postal	Elect YL AGM	Elect conf
Indigenous	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	0
— method	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	Elect, fixed/FE	n/a	n/a
Platform Committee	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
— method	Ex officio	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Total policy/party delegates	83	0	11	0	6	9	3	6
— as percentage of total	9.3%	0.0%	2.6%	0.0%	3.0%	4.2%	1.5%	7.9%
Total delegates	890	606	422	300	200	214	198	76
Nat Conf delegates	108	86	72	42	34	22	6	6
— per State/Terr conf delegate	8	7	6	7	6	10	33	13
Nat Conf delegates elected how	56/44% SC/FEs	100% Conf	100% Conf	100% State Exec	100% Conv	50/50% SC/DE	100% Conf	100% Conf

1 ‘Person’ includes ballots with a postal provision for regional areas.
2 SA YL treated as a state electorate, 4 is assuming maximum allocation.
3 In some branches, union votes are weighted so the number of delegates present at conference will be less.

One thing that is clear from the table is that NSW has the least rank-and-file input into its conference and those delegates are a) not directly elected and b) the allocation is fixed, not proportional. It is a gerrymander that is out of line with all other states. A change to that structure will have flow on effects nationally.

With a clearer understanding of how the structure of the ALP actually works, it will be easier to identify the real barriers to a democratic party and push a more effective reform agenda.

Changes in Labor’s factional composition

There’s been renewed interest in a piece I wrote a few months ago after an article in The Guardian suggested the Right may lose its majority at the upcoming ALP National Conference. Whether it happens hinges on upcoming delegate elections in NSW and Victoria.

One question I have been asked is what changes have resulted in this situation. While there is some publicly available information about factional breakdowns in the ALP, it is fairly limited. For example, it was widely reported that at the 2011 Conference, the Labor Right had 218 of 400 delegates. There was, however, little information about how the state breakdowns.

The most notable piece on the factional composition within the ALP is Wayne Swan and Clem Lloyd’s journal article ‘National factions and the ALP’. Published in 1987 in the Australian Journal of Political Science, it gave a history of the rise of nationally organised factions and provided a comparative breakdown by state over 1984-1987. It is, however, of limited use today as a guide to factional compositions.

A better starting point to chart the change in ALP factional composition over the past decade is Xandra  Faulkner’s Ph.D. thesis, The Spirit of Accommodation: The Influence of the ALP’s National Factions on Party Policy 1996–2004. The thesis provides a breakdown of delegates from the 2002 Special Rules Conference in Canberra.

The 2002 Conference instituted a number of party reforms including instituting 50/50 at state conferences, directly electing the National President and also expanded National Conference to 400 which had an impact from 2004 onwards. Many of the more far-reaching reforms proposed by the Left were blocked as due to opposition from the Independents Alliance (Centre-Left) and Right.

In table below, I’ve drawn on data from her thesis and added a percentage breakdown:

Table 1. National Factions at the 2002 National Conference

	NSW	%	VIC	%	QLD	%	SA	%	WA	%	TAS	%	ACT	%	NT	%	Total	%
Right	47	73.4%	15	39.5%	12	38.7%	8	38.1%	5	25.0%	5	31.3%	1	25.0%	1	25.0%	97	48.3%
Left	17	26.6%	18	47.4%	13	41.9%	12	57.1%	9	45.0%	9	56.3%	2	50.0%	2	50.0%	82	40.8%
Centre-Left	0	0.0%	5	13.2%	6	19.4%	1	4.8%	6	30.0%	2	12.5%	1	25.0%	1	25.0%	22	10.9%
Total	64	100%	38	100%	31	100%	21	100%	20	100%	16	100%	4	100%	4	100%	201	100%

It seems the big change since 2002 has been the demise of the Centre-Left around the 2004 Conference. Much of their vote seems to have gone to the Left (particularly in WA and Tasmania).

Of note is that the Left has significantly increased its share in NSW. Gains, however, have been offset by losses in Victoria. The Right has gained significant ground in Victoria over the past decade at the expense of both the Left and Centre-Left (particularly as the National Union of Workers has rejoined Labor Unity in Victoria).

While the Left seems to have gained the most from the demise of the Independents Alliance, the Right gained enough to get an outright majority, first on National Executive in 2004 and then at the 2007 ALP National Conference.